DJIA Starting Point: 37.5 - Yearly Change = 1.04515 (default value changed from 1.0478 on 7-3-2010)

The idea is to find a number that seems right based on historical growth patterns and the fact that crashes and corrections should revert back to the trend or revolve around the trend with the trend always pulling the bull and bear markets back to it.

The most current era should have the least sway, especially if the current stock market may be in a bubble or bust.

Big bear markets of the past such as 1929-1932 and the entire period between 1966 and 1982 can serve to "anchor down" the trendline because we know the trend must run through these correction periods. The crash of 1987 is perhaps the best anchor I can find as almost certainly the trend average was close to the bottom of that crash, near 1738, and probably a bit above that level.

The start point is critical as is the rate of change. All numbers derive from these two. This is all informed speculation.

1900 = 39.19
1901 = 40.96
1902 = 42.81
1903 = 44.74
1904 = 46.76
1905 = 48.87
1906 = 51.08
1907 = 53.39
1908 = 55.80
1909 = 58.32
1910 = 60.95
1911 = 63.70
1912 = 66.58
1913 = 69.59
1914 = 72.73
1915 = 76.01
1916 = 79.44
1917 = 83.03
1918 = 86.78
1919 = 90.70
1920 = 94.80
1921 = 99.08
1922 = 103.55
1923 = 108.23
1924 = 113.12
1925 = 118.23
1926 = 123.57
1927 = 129.15
1928 = 134.98
1929 = 141.07
1930 = 147.44
1931 = 154.10
1932 = 161.06
1933 = 168.33
1934 = 175.93
1935 = 183.87
1936 = 192.17
1937 = 200.85
1938 = 209.92
1939 = 219.40
1940 = 229.31
1941 = 239.66
1942 = 250.48
1943 = 261.79
1944 = 273.61
1945 = 285.96
1946 = 298.87
1947 = 312.36
1948 = 326.46
1949 = 341.20
1950 = 356.61
1951 = 372.71
1952 = 389.54
1953 = 407.13
1954 = 425.51
1955 = 444.72
1956 = 464.80
1957 = 485.79
1958 = 507.72
1959 = 530.64
1960 = 554.60
1961 = 579.64
1962 = 605.81
1963 = 633.16
1964 = 661.75
1965 = 691.63
1966 = 722.86
1967 = 755.50
1968 = 789.61
1969 = 825.26
1970 = 862.52
1971 = 901.46
1972 = 942.16
1973 = 984.70
1974 = 1029.16
1975 = 1075.63
1976 = 1124.19
1977 = 1174.95
1978 = 1228.00
1979 = 1283.44
1980 = 1341.39
1981 = 1401.95
1982 = 1465.25
1983 = 1531.41
1984 = 1600.55
1985 = 1672.81
1986 = 1748.34
1987 = 1827.28
1988 = 1909.78
1989 = 1996.01
1990 = 2086.13
1991 = 2180.32
1992 = 2278.76
1993 = 2381.65
1994 = 2489.18
1995 = 2601.57
1996 = 2719.03
1997 = 2841.79
1998 = 2970.10
1999 = 3104.20
2000 = 3244.35
2001 = 3390.83
2002 = 3543.93
2003 = 3703.94
2004 = 3871.17
2005 = 4045.95
2006 = 4228.62
2007 = 4419.54
2008 = 4619.08
2009 = 4827.63
2010 = 5045.60
2011 = 5273.41
2012 = 5511.50
2013 = 5760.34
2014 = 6020.42
2015 = 6292.24
2016 = 6576.33
2017 = 6873.25
2018 = 7183.58
2019 = 7507.92
2020 = 7846.90
2021 = 8201.19
2022 = 8571.47
2023 = 8958.47
2024 = 9362.94
2025 = 9785.68
2026 = 10227.50
2027 = 10689.27
2028 = 11171.89
2029 = 11676.30
2030 = 12203.48

All Done.